CATarses

Betting experience: how you choose your favourite?

30 posts in this topic

So that's the question. The most common scenario is when we've got people split in 3:1 shares. So when you bet on on a favourite, you get 1% bonus in case of victory, when you bet on a loser and it wins you get 3%. So what's your strategy?

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Why are you even betting on short bets. There is no point.

Long bets are the only way to really get anything going.

That split is 5:3 so betting on the losing team is always better. The car with the most bets wins around 90% of the time so you don't even have to think about what their cars actually are (but is reccomended).

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The weird thing is that short bets are more risky than long, even if we consider losing (potentially) 1 item vs 3 items. The gain from short bets is really minimal, especially for new players with weaker parts.

I look mainly at the shape and parts used in build of each vehicle, including tiers. Then I look at the bets amount/6% bonus, which is less risky to bet on. Finally I look at stats and then strategically make the best choice.

...

don't do what I'm doing, I already lost 4 bets that were supposed to be certain wins.

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I personally like the short bets better.  Some of them are no-brainers and easy to predict, like where one of the builds has a chainsaw that doesn't extend past the end of the chassis.   I capitalize on those easy bets and increase parts 1% at a time with very little risk.  I believe recovery is cheaper too, if things go sour.  I also use the short bets to see which stat I'll be increasing, as the 1% will assign the stat.  Then if it's the wrong stat, I won't waste my time upgrading it further.

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52 minutes ago, Taken said:

Why are you even betting on short bets. There is no point.

Long bets are the only way to really get anything going.

That split is 5:3 so betting on the losing team is always better. The car with the most bets wins around 90% of the time so you don't even have to think about what their cars actually are (but is reccomended).

I don't fully understand but are you saying that it's better to bet on the 10% bet instead of the 6% bet because it's 5:3 but the the 6% bet wins 90% of the time?

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30 minutes ago, JabaduGarfunk said:

I don't fully understand but are you saying that it's better to bet on the 10% bet instead of the 6% bet because it's 5:3 but the the 6% bet wins 90% of the time?

Whoops! I meant to say,to bet on the winning side.

58 minutes ago, Fezzik said:

I also use the short bets to see which stat I'll be increasing, as the 1% will assign the stat.  Then if it's the wrong stat, I won't waste my time upgrading it further.

Seems like everyone uses short bets that way.

 

 

Edited by Taken
typo correction

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I found short bets also pretty usefull. You can do one short bet every 5 minutes. So if you place short bets for 2 hours straight. You'll be able to increase an items stats by 24% which can allready by quite significant, but it's reall only for dedicated players.

Just like @Fezzik I also use short bets to determine if items will have a good stat bonus or not.

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21 hours ago, MrKukurykpl said:

The weird thing is that short bets are more risky than long, even if we consider losing (potentially) 1 item vs 3 items. The gain from short bets is really minimal, especially for new players with weaker parts.

I look mainly at the shape and parts used in build of each vehicle, including tiers. Then I look at the bets amount/6% bonus, which is less risky to bet on. Finally I look at stats and then strategically make the best choice.

...

don't do what I'm doing, I already lost 4 bets that were supposed to be certain wins.

You don't have to put 3 items in. 

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21 hours ago, MrKukurykpl said:

even if we consider losing (potentially) 1 item vs 3 items. 

Whoops, I misinterpreted this sentence. Thought you didn't know or something my bad.

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Another thing to consider is that you rarely have 3 usefull items to upgrade. So you'll pick one or two items which you use and then you'll throw in another one, which you don't actually use that much.

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1 hour ago, Solaito said:

Another thing to consider is that you rarely have 3 usefull items to upgrade. So you'll pick one or two items which you use and then you'll throw in another one, which you don't actually use that much.

Wait, you don't have 3 or more usefull things to upgrade? You usually have 1 body, 1 booster, 2 weapons and 2 wheels (6 items). Anyways, I very regularly update my items to get more health and damage so I rarely don't have 3 items to upgrade.

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On 4/26/2017 at 2:21 PM, Taken said:

Wait, you don't have 3 or more usefull things to upgrade? You usually have 1 body, 1 booster, 2 weapons and 2 wheels (6 items). Anyways, I very regularly update my items to get more health and damage so I rarely don't have 3 items to upgrade.

For the record, I always have 3+ things I might consider upgrading.... but I rarely have 3 things that I would want to RISK upgrading with the chanciness of the long bet, since the gem penalty can be high.  Especially when you take into account that whatever item I upgrade may be wonderful today... but in 2-3 days I'll be 2 stages higher and it starts looking like stuff I want to replace and turn in for upgrade (and lose most of what I risked gems to get).   At which point all those gems I might have lost... really are wasted.

In the end.... I am finding I dont stay in one place long enough to make risky betting worthwhile.  When I am in the last category I'll consider it more seriously.... I dont mind the short bets at all though.  Just not a high stakes risk-taker I guess. xD

Edited by xitooner

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7 hours ago, xitooner said:

Just not a high stakes risk-taker I guess.

What high stakes? Literally, it will only cost around 23 gems if you lose, and most of the time it is prestty obvious if you know how everything works. I replenish my gems faster than I lose gems anyways.

Anyways, short bets actually have worse odds (1 semi-close battle for usually 1% increase vs a close battle for 6%)

 

Also, for some reason, per item, short bets cost more gems to get back your stuff.

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You kinda get some sense of what will win given the circumstances, even some repeated bets so you know in advance who will win if you have good memory, but usually it's a matter of who will hit first, longer or who will flip or hit the back wall. With some practice your eye gets better at noticing a lot of stuff so I suggest not going with the flow all the time, I actually won three 3% bets in a row :D

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I use the short bets to apply bonus to all items. If I'm satisfied with the bonus, I use the long bets to improve that bonus.

 

 

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I hardly bother with bets any more.  Cars change too often and I get losses I shouldn't and have to spend gems to save items.  Long bet's I would bother with, but since you have to wait till the last minute I'm nearly never on or forget to look during those last 5-10 minutes.  Then I'm never in a league more than 2 days, so my gear that I worked my @** off to get the bonus on is becomes obsolete.

I like the idea, but the mechanic needs revision before it's going to provide any real value to me.

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Right now im losing more than I win if i try to pick well, so sometimes its better that I pick the one that I think will lose xD

Seriously, for now im avoiding that feature, and only putting my cheapest parts on the line to watch the outcomes.

 

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3 hours ago, Oliver said:

Right now im losing more than I win if i try to pick well, so sometimes its better that I pick the one that I think will lose xD

Seriously, for now im avoiding that feature, and only putting my cheapest parts on the line to watch the outcomes.

 

 

It is frustrating when you have to pay gems to a very close game. I feel you should only bet on bets where the winner is very clear and not risk on close ones. Look for body design, and weapon damage to find who is going to win.

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You know one thing I find really funny?  I've seen what I describe below about 6 times now in the short bets.. . . (and yeah, I burned myself before I learned too)

People dont look enough at the wheels enough when placing bets!  Oh, they will look at wheel sizes, and if one side or the other has a clearly better weapon configuration, etc....one has the drill extending nicely down low but the other ones drill doesnt extend outside of its body... stuff like that.  You can see the body is down low and/or you wont be flipped, etc....  but sometimes BOTH machines have wheels that barely extend outside the body (if at all).  And when the battle starts... NEITHER of them can move/attack at all.  The win is purely based on which one gets hit by the wall first.

But when you see how the bets are placed..... 11K votes for one and 500+ votes for the other.   Clearly people arent seeing this.  In truth nobody should be betting at all, because its as close to a coin flip as you are going to get.  Ugggh.

   

 

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5 hours ago, xitooner said:

You know one thing I find really funny?  I've seen what I describe below about 6 times now in the short bets.. . . (and yeah, I burned myself before I learned too)

People dont look enough at the wheels enough when placing bets!  Oh, they will look at wheel sizes, and if one side or the other has a clearly better weapon configuration, etc....one has the drill extending nicely down low but the other ones drill doesnt extend outside of its body... stuff like that.  You can see the body is down low and/or you wont be flipped, etc....  but sometimes BOTH machines have wheels that barely extend outside the body (if at all).  And when the battle starts... NEITHER of them can move/attack at all.  The win is purely based on which one gets hit by the wall first.

But when you see how the bets are placed..... 11K votes for one and 500+ votes for the other.   Clearly people arent seeing this.  In truth nobody should be betting at all, because its as close to a coin flip as you are going to get.  Ugggh.

   

 

Yeah. 3 times in a row the 10% bonus bet won. I lost 50+ gems to get back my stuff. In one battle the side machine killed the car and i lost.

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If it looks too close to call, pick the 3% (or 10%) :)

I've upgraded the quick bet skill once so it's 2-4% for quick bets. This cuts the number of bets needed in half.

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My strategy was got to upgrade quick bet bonus as soon as possible (1 prestige i think) to get additional 2%. So now it's 3% or 5% and maximum 20 wins to get fully upgrade detail.

But about favorite...first i play bad and lost lot of gems. Something like 100 gems for one good wheel. With more experience i learn to let go many bets and not participate in them because it's total unpredictable.

So if i'm not 100% sure for myself i don't place bet no matter what other players had bet. Mathematics helps a bit but not always.

And sometimes i do stupid bets. For example scenario with sneaky with higher damage vs classic and weaker damage but with forklift. It's one which i try to avoid but do make bet and mostly wrong :)

Edited by SeniorSSS

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